good points about the Falklands War regarding making fewer mistakes allowing the British to recover the islands. A point to think abour regarding regional power relationships is that should the PRC absorb Taiwan (by whatever means) this puts the southern most island of Japan just over 100 kilometers from what would then be the PRC. This would surely change the attitude of Japan regarding offshore rights for exploration etc. and greatly increase the possibility of frictions between the two countries. It would also certainly involve challanges to the US-Japan relationship as well as the PRC-US relationship. Also, though characterized as a regional power, The PLA(Navy) is actively engaged in anti piracy actions off the Horn of Africa. This activity galvanized Japan to send its own ships to participate quite quickly although it had been debating this deployment endlessly. So if it is thinking as a regional player, the PRC is also taking actions outside the region.

Upon examining China’s longstanding history of constantly being overrun and destroyed, it will be hard to convince China to fully trust the US. They will always want to build up a blue water navy to protect their overseas assets and deter foreign (ie US) interference in their economy. Hence I personally would never consider China an ally. However, I wouldn’t consider China a rival either.

I also don’t think China is focused on Taiwan. I believe that they assume that eventually Taiwan will just want to rejoin the mainland on their own initiative. Hence the free trade talks going on between the two. That’s why I am starting to lean against the transfer of US military assets to Taiwan, either by sale or by donation. It may be just delivering sensitive US military technology into eager Chinese hands.

Therefore, I personally prefer dealing with China in a cautious way: continuing economic ties, but also ensuring the US military presence in the Pacific is strong enough to deter Chinese military aggression. Currently, it sounds like the US 7th fleet should be enough, but it wouldn’t hurt to spend a little more in that area.

Much more interested in future EEZ confrontations, and in PRC outreach to Africa and SA, than about Taiwan. Latter is a friend, but – in no conceivable ‘American-treasure-time-and-talent’ squandering kind of way – is it a vital interest. If I were Chinese, I’d have re-assimilated Taiwan long ago, and the act would be largely invisible to the world in terms of access, economics, and security.

Brazil is doing some interesting things. They have an agreement with the Chinese to train Chinese pilots on their carrier and they have been making nice with Iran.

How many sorties per day can be launched from the ex-Varyag?

I guess it is a good assumption that the Chinese never invited us to go onboard and inspect their changes, correct?

Lived in Taiwan 20 years ago and now living in China. There is a strong convergence of culture – standard of living, traffic, shopping, karaoke, fashion, internet & money making obsessions, as well as direct flights & tourism – which makes me think there is high chance of the PRC absorbing Taiwan. A recent article about Taiwan said the young men have little interest in the military or fighting with China. Like the West, most of their factories (and jobs) are already over in China anyway.

Another point, China must somehow maintain strong economic growth or face domestic unrest, and energy, raw materials, and secure shipping (for exports) are needed for that growth. I suggest that Chinese do plan for an epic, mutually destructive set piece sea battle with the USN, but the more practical Chinese navy role to further Chinese influence, prestige, and enhance diplomatic power. So the vital trade can keep flowing and growing, somehow indefinitely.