This piece from Reuters this morning:

TEHRAN – Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards are ready to provide a military escort to cargo ships trying to break Israel’s blockade of Gaza, a representative of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday.”Iran’s Revolutionary Guards naval forces are fully prepared to escort the peace and freedom convoys to Gaza with all their powers and capabilities,” Ali Shirazi, Khamenei’s representative inside the Revolutionary Guards, was quoted as saying by the semi-official Mehr news agency.

Any intervention by the Iranian military would be considered highly provocative by Israel which accuses Iran of supplying weapons to Hamas, the Islamist movement which rules Gaza.

Should Teheran be foolhardy enough to follow through on this threat, it would seem to be for little purpose other than provoking Israel into a hostile exchange at sea. Assisting in the breaking of a blockade would widely be considered an act of war, a fact that Iran is likely aware of.

Does the Iranian regime sense an opportunity with what seems the turning of opinion in Washington and internationally away from Israel following the ill-starred boarding of a “humanitarian aid” vessel last week?

Is Ahmedinejad looking to cement his role as the Middle East’s most aggressive (and influential) anti-Zionist?

What will other nations in the region do? Will they be forced to back Iran’s play or face ostracism from their Muslim neighbors?

What is the United States prepared and/or willing to do to prevent such an exchange, or in the event, act decisively without undue escalation?




Posted by UltimaRatioReg in Aviation, Coast Guard, Foreign Policy, Homeland Security, Marine Corps, Maritime Security, Navy, Uncategorized


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  • http://fredfryinternational.blogspot.com/ Fred Fry

    Just how is Iran going to get into the Med? Via Syria? Support from the air? Or are they just going to put commandos onboard? At least they should be able to position people and probably weapons as well.

  • D. E. Reddick

    I’ll just follow in the commentary footsteps of War News Update:

    http://warnewsupdates.blogspot.com/2010/06/iran-offers-to-escort-next-gaza-aid.html

    Which is to say… as if Egypt is going to allow any Iranian combatants to pass through the Suez Canal. And then, how are any Iranian vessels going to traverse the Red Sea with Israeli surface combatants and submarines patrolling those waters (besides the IDF F-15s & F-16s flying cover from out of the mouth of the Gulf of Aqaba).

  • Lee Wetherhorn

    Since the Turks sponsored the “aid Flotilla”, and have been garnering all the media attention, it is likely that Iran feels left out. Both of them are trying to maneuver into a major leadership position in the Islamic world. The usual way is to jump on some “blame Israel” cause.
    Iran also wants to divert attention from their nuclear programs. If the aid flotilla story wasn’t around to milk, they might very well have used one of their puppets, Hamas or Hizbullah, to shoot bunch of rockets. Iranian support, material and financial, is what has allowed those groups to thumb their noses at a requirement to recognize that Israel has a right to exist and to refrain from hostile, violent, activities against Israel. US attempts to get them to modify that stance via diplomacy and sanctions have been ineffective.

  • Dael Sumner

    I doubt that even Iran would be so fool hardy as to directly provoke Israel. It’s entirely too clear what the results would be even to a fanatical regime such as their’s. I dont think you get the virgins for commiting self genocide.
    I see it as more posturing and leading up to some kind of bargaining for something or other much in the line of North Korea’s “we will launch this missle at the world if you dont give us something” crap! Time we or someone, stops this little bully kid kind of acts…

  • http://www.coatneyhistory.com Lou Coatney

    Wars are won by those who make the fewer really stupid mistakes.
    Hitler invading Russia, then declaring war on the U.S., and then delaying Me-265 jet fighter production a full year come to mind.

    The Iranians would be giving the Israelis a legitimate excuse to attack them, since trying to break the blockade militarily would indeed be an act of war … as humanitarianly questionable as the blockade may be and despite Israel’s previous miscalculation and mishandling of it.

    Did someone … much farther to the east … give Iran license to be so stupid?

    Here’s to keeping your powder dry and blowing on your matches, boys.

  • http://www.coatneyhistory.com Lou Coatney

    Typo: Me-262.

  • UltimaRatioReg

    “Did someone … much farther to the east … give Iran license to be so stupid?”

    That seems to be the first of many questions.

    Beware, also, of applying a ‘reasonable man” theory to a group of unreasonable men.

  • Airedale

    Mulahs will talk the talk but can they walk the …

    …plank ?

    DO Iranians want their leaders going into Israeli waters putting Iranian interests in harms way ?
    The people were told the fight was comming to thier soil with an invading army
    not this bleeding heart brinksmanship a humdreds of miles away from home

  • Airedale

    Fred,
    I see the aid ships going dead in the water and Iranian missile crews along with their hizbo buds launching rockets into all points of Israel.
    The UN peacekeeping forces will be dumbfounded.
    Syria did get some beefy missiles that supposedly “never” crossed into Lebanon ya know
    Will see how they roll the dice this 7/11 friday

  • Adam

    With Israeli submarines armed with cruise missiles now positioned off the coast of Iran, I am very surprised that Iran has not started learning how to act prudently like the other members of the nuclear club that it evidently wishes to join. Israel is no South Korea, and doesn’t take this sort of thing lying down, so Iran better find a better model than the one in Pyongyang.

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