While interesting, it is a long way from the whole picture. Lets remember that USNA and NROTC are not included in the numbers on the spreadsheet. So to actually evaluate the potential for future “SWO Notches” and other problems down the road, we need to see the entire officer accession numbers. Still, when you want to avoid tough decisions, and not have to worry about the impact until after you are long gone, you can always cut accessions and assume higher retention to make the numbers work.

@Mittleschmerz – No argument that 600 fewer assessions can potentially have an impact. However, we also have to look at the need for the officers down the road and projected retention (accurate or not!). First, if you are seeing higher than anticipated retention at the DH level, you would need fewer officer assessions. Additionally, since the OCS officers are the surge capacity, a higher number of graduates from NROTC and USNA sources would of course drive down the number needed. Second, if you assume you need fewer officers to man the future force you might want to drop assessions (fewer NFOs in every EF-18G vs EA-6B, fewer officers on LCS as opposed to FFG-7 class, etc). Another contributing factor could have been the expansion of the USMC which required an increase in officers from USNA and NROTC sources. Since many of the gains appear to be on the way of being reduced (according to senior Marines), fewer NROTC and USNA graduates that started 4 years ago will be USMC and more will be USN. Not saying that any of these factors are the answer, just that they could be. That is why I would find it interesting to see the numbers of all commissioning sources and some of the factors that the manpower people are using to set the targets before getting too bent out of shape. However, having been a victim of numerous idiotic manpower decisions in my career, and seen even more, I hope it is good shaping of the future force and not wishfull thinking or postponing hard decisions to someone elses watch.

@Grandpa Bluewater
“Not likely. However, promotion to Captain in 2022 should be good.”
Possibly, but without more info you really can’t know, which is the point of my post. Did we assess too many officers in the last few years so we now have a surplus of JOs? Will the fleet grow or shrink from previous projections used to determine requirements? How many Captains will we need in 2022? What is the capitol of Assyria? I am not in a position to say. The dynamic for how many officers you have to select from for Captain in any given year is driven by numerous other factors than just numbers of assessions. I really can’t tell from the rather narrow view of the post and make the choice to look at the glass as being half full. Perhaps, more likely probably, I am being wrong, but one should always have hope (although it should not be a course of action). I totally agree with your last comment, but that doesn’t mean that I an not hallucinating.