Tougher than it has been in a while. Malibu at New York Naval Recruiting has the details.
A month into the new fiscal year and:
As you can see a vast majority of the designators already have their number for the year or are at least very close. In addition if you view the column entitled “Goal” it is easy to see how competitive these programs currently are at this time.
Head over to his place to see more, and the actual numbers…but bottom line – unless you want to be a SWO Information Warfare option, Special Warfare, Pilot, PAO, Oceanographer, Supply, Civil Engineer, or Cyber-warrior…it’s not likely to be this year.
So, what’s the relevance? Well, in 2007 Navy was looking for 1,571 new active duty officers. In 2008 -1,962. 2009 – 2, 202. 2010 – 2, 403.
Of last year’s 2,403 accessions, 1,536 were line officers – the ones on Malibu’s spreadsheet.
Total active duty line officer goal for 2011? 990.
Which means a roughly 1/3 reduction in active duty line officer accessions through Recruiting Command this year.
So, with today’s percentage based promotion system, 20 years from now we should be hearing about a shortage of Commanders and Captains.