A US Navy of 350 ships? All navalists would love to have that.
We have global responsibilities. We are a two-ocean navy. Numbers mean things.
One of the things we discussed last Sunday on Midrats, is that it isn’t enough just to gauge the actual numbers – or even the relative quality or capability of each unit – you have to see the broader picture of how that navy will operate.
It is helpful to think in terms of interior and exterior lines of operation at sea. A 350 ship US Navy focused on global presence (utilizing exterior lines of operation) has a different challenge than a equally sized navy that has global interests, but is perhaps more focused on regional dominance (using interior lines of operation).
What if that regionally focused navy does not have 350, but has 500?
As Dr Peter Roberts, Director Military Sciences at the Royal United Services Institute outlines;
Indeed, while discussion over the future performance of the Chinese economy is clouded by problems such as a smaller profit-to-output margins and a massive debt overhang, China’s military future is clearer. As a study by US Naval War College Professor of Strategy Andrew Erickson points out, there is more certainty over the country’s military capabilities.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (Navy) – or PLA(N) – is moving towards an ambition of 500 warships, including aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, amphibious ships and a burgeoning frigate and destroyer force.
Just in the past three weeks a new destroyer and new corvette have been launched and discussion over new carrier-based aircraft has been increasing. The growth in the PLA(N) force structure has been rapid: indeed it is hard to recall growth at a similar pace in any navy across history.
500 is an aggressive number. What is the Chinese Navy doing in 2017 to get there?
Bryan Kalman, over to you;
2017: A Big Year for the PLAN
Although the CV-17 aircraft carrier will not be commissioned until 2018 or 2019, this year is shaping up to be a big year for the PLAN, considering the expansion of the navy in both quantitative and qualitative terms. In addition to the commissioning on three more Type 052D destroyers, three additional Type 054A frigates, two newly commissioned Type 056 corvettes, one Type 904B and one Type 901 large replenishment ship, the first of China’s largest and most capable surface warships, the first Type 055 will be launched.
Although the Type 055 will not be a game changer, in that it does not afford China a distinct advantage over near-peer adversaries, it does level the playing field in China’s favor in any prospective conflict. In terms of regional adversaries, it gives China a powerful advantage over the small navies at its doorstep. Only Japan’s JMSDF and the United States Navy in the Pacific region will maintain an edge over an increasingly capable and assertive PLAN. As time goes on, this advantage in naval power will continue to diminish.
No rest my Navy. No rest.
