Remember 2004? Seems like a long time ago for some, but for many it seems like just a few years ago. 13 years.
When someone says “2030” it may seem like a long time from now, but it isn’t. It is 13 years.
Think about what our Navy was in 2004 and is now. Sure, some things have changed for the better, some for the worse – but on average, not a radically different fleet. In 2004, when we looked in to the future 13 years we saw lots of deployed LCS swapping out mission modules on the fly, F-35B/C dominating the air, and many of the first three-dozen or so DDG-1000 transforming everything in a transformational way.
So, a lot can change – but looking at trends is important when it takes years to build a navy and the industrial base to support it.
There is a nice little graphic in the latest from CNAS, Beyond the San Hai: the Challenge of China’s Blue-Water Navy that should get your attention.
Hopefully it will encourage you to read a bit further and ponder if we really have the correct view towards maintaining our dominance at sea.
