As we wind up 2018 and contemplate the end of the second decade of the 21st Century – what do we need to keep an eye on?
Of course, China is in everyone’s list. The last 10 years, a small library of books on the topic have been written along with untold commentary in newspapers, magazines, and online. It is easy to get lost on it all, but not necessary.
At least for the navalist, there are simple things that point you towards where your mind should focus. Watch what is being done.
Let’s start with this on picture of 1 055 and 3 052DG are being built together.
One of China’s most prominent harbors for naval shipbuilding has rapidly expanded in the past decade, new satellite images show, amid a massive military modernization push by Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The Jiangnan Shipyard, located in Shanghai at the mouth of the Yangtze River, was only opened in 2008 but it has already increased by 64%, according to satellite imagery analyzed by Washington-based think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
“Jiangnan is responsible for some of China’s most advanced warships … The assets produced at the shipyard form an important part of the PLAN’s (People’s Liberation Army Navy’s) modernization,” Matthew Funaiole, fellow at the CSIS’s China Power Project, told CNN.
It comes amid a concerted campaign by Beijing, pushed by Xi, to rapidly expand and update China’s navy, with 32 ships commissioned in 2016 and 2017 alone, according to US government reports.
Look at that number, 32.
Depending on your source, numbers can vary a few here or there, but the trend is clear. Let’s look at major surface combatants. Right now, the Chinese have either undergoing sea trials, fitting out, or under construction roughly seven Type 055 and eleven Type 52D. All these ships are expected to be commissioned in 2019 or 2020.
As for USN ships coming online, as ZUMWALT will be relegated to little more than a technology demonstrator or surprise guest, and there is nothing major about LCS, we only have one major surface combatant class under construction due to be delivered in 2019-2020, the Flight IIA Arleigh Burke. We’re looking forward to six of them.
What about our allies?
For reference, let’s take a sample of two; the British Royal Navy only has 19 major surface combatants (6 destroyers, 13 frigates). The German Navy has 11 frigates. That it. In active service. All of them.
Construction wise, the Royal Navy has one Type-26 frigate under construction, but not due to be delivered until ~2023 or so. As for the Germans, though Hull-1 of the Baden-Württemberg Class of large frigates was returned to the builder do to a significant number of issues, they do have three others of the class due to be delivered in the next two years.
Of these two navies, perhaps a small Royal Navy detachment could be expected to be of any utility in WESTPAC should war come. From Europe, that would be about it.
I almost forgot about the Australian Navy. They will be bringing online the final Hobart Class destroyer next year. One. Perhaps she can do sea trials with the next Japanese destroyer … in 2021.
We like to see ourselves as a global nation with a global navy to help take care of global responsibilities – with the help of allies.
We like to think of China as a regional power with a regional navy to help take care of regional needs.
China is not building a regional navy, but our allies are.
We consider global maritime dominance our birthright, but it isn’t. It must be bought, paid for, and earned. Time will take its toll on our legacy surface fleet thought the 2020s. At present rates, at the end of the 2020s who will be positioned to serve as a global power with a global navy, and who will be stretched to be the same?
A final little bit of the trivia of decline; I wonder if that big crane in the picture of the Chinese shipyard above is the old Offshore Power Systems crane that used to dominate the St. Johns River at Blount Island, then the world’s largest bridge crane (and perhaps still)? You know, that crane we sold to the Chinese in 1990 for $3 million?
