If your opponent’s ability to sustain a long running conflict with you relies on the free flow of it oil at market prices – and their access to capital to buy weapons from that trade is its major advantage over you – then why would you not do all you can to disrupt that trade?
First, you need someone in your military planning staff who understands economics, maritime trade, and of all things – insurance.
Second, you need the capability to make an impact. The first problem is the hard part. If you are smart and crafty – and have a motivated force – the second part is reasonably doable.
Squeezing margins by increasing risk to Middle Eastern nations’ ability to get their product to market has a long history. In their war against the Saudi Kingdom in Yemen, the Houthis have shown some imagination and creativity in trying to bring the war to the Saudis. Besides firing a few ASCM seaward, we have not seen a sustained effort to hit the very vulnerable and delicate petroleum industry.
The Houthi’s Iranian allies showed the way a few years ago in the east, have the Houthis decided to open this new front in the Red Sea – perhaps, or more likely, with the encouragement of their Iranian friends?
This week, we have some I&W that someone on their staff is thinking this way.
An official from the Saudi Aramco oil company on Tuesday said customers were unaffected by an attack that came from Yemen’s Houthi group at a petroleum products distribution plant in the north of Jeddah city.
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi forces on Monday said they fired a missile at and struck the Jeddah facility. Saudi authorities later confirmed the attack.
One of the 13 tanks at Aramco’s North Jeddah Bulk Plant is currently out of action, the official told journalists on a tour.
Other reports has it as a “Quds-2” which is an interesting cruise missile of sorts – give it a look.
650-km isn’t bad.
This is the real main play if you are trying to get the greatest impact;
An explosion has damaged an oil tanker off the coast of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea near the border with Yemen, according to a private security firm.
The blast on Wednesday hit the MT Agrari, a Maltese-flagged, Greek-managed vessel off the coast of Shuqaiq.
…
The ship was still floating off the coast and had been boarded by Saudi officials, the company said. Saudi Arabia did not immediately acknowledge the incident.Ambrey, a British security firm, reported the blast and attributed it to a mine.
It said the Agrari had cargo from Rotterdam, Netherlands and that it had discharged at the Shuqaiq Steam Power Plant.
“LR2/Aframax tanker AGRARI was impacted by a mine having berthed at one of the Al Shuqaiq Steam Power Plant (SSPP) jetties in Saudi Arabia,” Ambrey’s report said.
“The explosion took place in port limits and punctured the hull of the vessel, which is in ballast,” it added. It did not say when the incident happened but noted the vessel had arrived at Al Shuqaiq on November 23.
A lucky floating mine? A carefully placed limpet?. Floating mines right off your major port areas and shipping lanes? That would be interesting. Limpets placed by swimmer even more so.
The piers? Here they are. Place your bets;
An isolate incident so far, but what if the shipping lanes in the Red Sea through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait become festooned of these surprises? How many large tankers will be holed to make the insurance carriers take notice?
Do the Saudis have a viable counter-swimmer capability?
Mine warfare in the Red Sea? Open source says that the Saudi navy only has one mine sweeper stationed at the naval base near Jeddah.
Worth keeping an eye on.
