If you’re not making an extra effort to find some well reasoned thinking about the developing crisis in Ukraine, I’m not sure what to do for you. Well, perhaps I can point you in a direction to some of the better thinking on the issue I’ve found out there.
One of the best this week comes from Rob Lee over at FPRI.
He sets the table for you right off the bat in the first paragraph;
How ambitious are Russia’s foreign policy objectives, and how much force does Moscow believe it must employ to achieve them? Moscow has submitted various ultimatums, but the most critical and pressing issue is that the Kremlin now regards Ukraine as a permanently hostile country continuing to increase its defense capabilities. Russian hopes for improved relations with President Volodymyr Zelensky were dashed in 2021, and Moscow is now focused on reducing the long-term security risk posed by Ukraine, including halting its expanding defense cooperation with NATO. However, this is one of the most unrealistic and difficult demands for NATO to satisfy, particularly because Ukraine is developing long-range missiles domestically. This diplomatic impasse suggests a significant risk of a Russian military escalation in Ukraine with few obvious offramps.
Each day we seem to have fewer and fewer offramps.
This is a complicated story dealing with a nation challenging for the western mind to understand; Russia. If you are looking for an executive summary of the executive summary, this works;
A number of recent articles have suggested that the costs of a potential invasion are too high, or that the purpose of a Russian military operation in Ukraine would be to occupy territory. A better explanation of Moscow’s current actions is that they are part of a compellence campaign. If Moscow cannot convince the United States to agree to some of its demands and force Ukraine to make concessions, it may view military force as its last resort to change what it considers an unacceptable status quo.
Lee outlines three rather solid RED COAs;
Russia could choose to seize territory to raise the costs on Kyiv, but this would likely not be the ultimate objective. Moscow could possibly achieve its objectives by unleashing Russia’s superior fires capability without an invasion or launching a short punitive raid with a planned withdrawal. These options would have fewer risks and costs than a large-scale invasion designed to occupy significantly more territory.
Sticking with the number 3, he also outlines three factors that started the buildup everyone is paying attention to now that started in the spring;
Russia’s threats against Ukraine are more dangerous now because, ultimately, its public threats earlier this year failed. … First, it was a reminder to Washington of Moscow’s military power and forced dialogue with the Biden administration to clarify the U.S.-Russian relationship. Second, the buildup occurred just a month after Ukrainian President Zelensky decided to shut down three television channels controlled by Viktor Medvedchuk, a close friend of President Vladimir Putin. … The third factor explaining the timing of the spring buildup was Azerbaijan’s victory in the 2nd Nagorno-Karabakh War. Azerbaijan won with critical support from Turkey, which included Turkish officers operating the TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicles that played such a crucial role.
Turkey is also not just a historical enemy of Russia, but a member of NATO.
Moscow is not playing around;
Russia has deployed approximately 32 percent of its military’s battalion tactical groups near Ukraine, a figure the U.S. intelligence community reportedly believes could rise to 60 percent. … Over the past week, videos have shown military equipment from Russia’s Eastern Military District moving westward on trains, including the Pacific Fleet’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, tank and motorized rifle units, Buk-M2 air defense systems, BM-27 Uragan multiple launch rocket systems, and more Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile systems. … Russian and Belarusian officials also announced that their forces will take part in a joint exercise that will last until February 20 including the deployment of a Russian Su-35S fighter squadron, two S-400 air defense battalions, and a Pantsir-S air defense battalion to Belarus as well as ground equipment. … In addition, several large landing ships from Russia’s Baltic Fleet have departed the Baltic Sea and are possibly headed towards the Black Sea. An enhanced Russian amphibious capability in the region could force Ukraine to send more units to defend its southern coastline, spreading its forces even thinner.
Front and flanks. Classic.
Things are more serious now in other ways too – the mood;
In contrast to the public buildup this spring, Russia has made a concerted effort to obscure its movements this time, moving equipment at night, rotating units between training ranges, and blocking websites used for tracking trains. In short, Russia is setting the conditions where it could conduct a significant military escalation, including a large-scale ground invasion, on short notice and with little warning, giving its threats greater weight. This buildup is not routine “saber-rattling” and departs from normal Russian behavior and rhetoric. Moreover, Russian officials are backing themselves into a corner by committing themselves to a strong response unless they receive concessions. If it does not achieve some of its stated goals, Moscow will suffer a cost to its credibility if it does not escalate.
Through their own actions they’ve raised the stakes for their political class. As our friend Carl liked to say – war is merely the continuation of politics by other means;
If Russia can’t force neutrality on Ukraine, Moscow will try to prevent Ukraine from improving its conventional deterrence. … The current posture of Russian forces points to a ground invasion towards the Ukrainian capital as a more likely option.
That is the clear meaning of a possible Belorussian front.
If Moscow has more limited objectives, such as deterring any future Ukrainian TB2 or artillery strikes in the Donbas, it could achieve them with less force. This could include shooting down TB2 drones if they fly near the Donbas or targeting their airfields with long-range munitions. … Another military option short of an invasion could involve employing Russia’s superior fires capability with artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and other standoff weapons, targeting Ukrainian military positions. A campaign of missile and artillery strikes could be limited to targeting specific Ukrainian military capabilities—for example, Ukrainian artillery units that fired on positions in the Donbas—or could inflict thousands of casualties on the Ukrainian military and significantly degrade its military capabilities, including strikes on Ukrainian air defenses and airfields.
Lee’s final warning is spot on. An expanded war and its larger implications seem so out of what we expect and so costly – from our perspective – the many don’t want to even consider it. That is a mistake.
It is impossible to be sure what Putin is thinking, but Moscow’s current behavior is far from routine. Russia has deployed nearly an entire combined arms army from Siberia and is sending a large force from the Eastern Military District to Belarus. The scope of this deployment of ground combat power is unprecedented for post-Soviet Russia. Ultimatums accompanied by Russian officials publicly committing to a military response mean Russia will suffer a credibility cost if it does not act or achieve concessions. President Putin likely accepted that Russia might need to use military force if NATO and Ukraine refused to back down when he authorized a second buildup this fall. Moscow is signaling that it believes the costs of inaction are higher than the costs of employing force now.
My $.02? Watch the forces in Belorussia. If they start to go home on the 20th of February … then we should be ok. If not, watch closer.
