Time to return to the same topic we covered here last week – Turkey. She is expanding her entanglements in her near abroad that, because of our alliance with them and the relationship we have with her neighbors, should be a concern to all.
Outside a few shrinking intellectual islands, there are very few areas in the natsec nomenklatura that still hold on to the discredited habits that brought us in to unending wars in Central Asia and the Middle East. They still exist – you can see them pop up now and again regarding Syria, Libya, even Venezuela, but mostly they have retreated from respectful company and proper chatterati salons.
The habit is there, however. As the former Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright said,
“What’s the point of having this superb military you’re always talking about if we can’t use it?”
As long as we have a large military with global reach, few guardrails on its use, and growingly archaic webs of alliances that increase the odds of us being obliged to use it, every day brings another opportunity for another unnecessary foreign adventure setting forth our young men and women to slay dragons.
Combine that internal school of thought with external allies who can be encouraged to flex based on their alliance with the United States … and we are just a few wrong cards being pulled from conflict.
With the embers of another ethno-nationalist frozen conflict bursting back in to flame between Armenia and Azerbeijan, all sorts of different players are converging in a place that is not only of no concern of the United States when looked at in isolation, those conflicts predate the even discovery of the New World in which our nation was born.
With each passing week, Turkey is risking conflict that will bring in a whole host of nations. She is involving herself more, and as a result, endangering the peace of her allies and the unity of an alliance that, in fits in starts, has created more peace than any in history. The latest example from NYT’s Christiaan Triebert;
Turkey is playing around with the patience of Russia and Iran.
On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for an end to the fighting which he described as a “tragedy”.
“We are very concerned,” he said in a televised interview. “We hope that this conflict will end in the very near future.”
“People are dying [and] there are heavy losses on both sides,” he added.
Mr Putin also held a brief telephone call with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev on Wednesday, the Kremlin said.
Russia is part of a military alliance with Armenia and has a military base in the country. However, it also has close ties to the government of Azerbaijan.
The US, France and Russia have jointly condemned the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh and have called for peace talks, but the conflict shows no signs of abating.
…
Iran has warned that renewed fighting between its neighbours Azerbaijan and Armenia could escalate into a wider regional war.President Hassan Rouhani said he hoped to “restore stability” to the region following days of heavy clashes over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave.
The enclave is officially part of Azerbaijan but run by ethnic Armenians.
The current fighting is the worst seen in decades, and both sides have blamed each other for the violence.
“We must be attentive that the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan does not become a regional war,” President Rouhani said on Wednesday.
President Rouhani also said it was “totally unacceptable” for any stray shells and missiles to land on Iranian soil.
His comments followed reports that shells had landed on villages in Iran, just across from its northern border with Armenia and Azerbaijan.
“Our priority is the security of our cities and villages,” President Rouhani said.
Iranian Border Guards Commander Qasem Rezaei also said his forces had been placed “in necessary formation” across from the fighting.
“Since the beginning of the conflict… a number of artillery shells and rockets have hit the territory of [Iran],” he said, according to the Tasnim news agency.
“Our border guards are vigilant and have moved into the necessary formation. They are fully monitoring and controlling the borders,” he added.
French President Emmanuel Macron said Ankara had sent Syrian “jihadists” to the region, accusing Turkey of crossing a “red line”.
Turkey has not responded publicly.
Russia and Armenia have also said that fighters from Syria and Libya are being deployed on the Azeri side in the conflict.
Rouhani, which has good relations with both Yerevan and Baku, reiterated Wednesday that “occupation is in no case acceptable”.
“Everyone” must “accept the reality… and respect other countries’ territorial integrity”, he said.
Rouhani at the same time condemned “those who, on one side or the other, pour oil on the fire”, without naming Turkey which has declared open support for Azeri military action to reclaim the enclave.
Iran has called on both Armenia and Azerbaijan to cease hostilities and offered to facilitate talks.
On Saturday, Tehran warned against any “intrusion” after mortar fire hit Iranian villages along the border.
Fars news agency reported last Thursday that police dispersed demonstrations in northwest Iran in support of Azerbaijan.
The Islamic republic is home to a large Azeri community, mainly in the northwest.
According to some estimates, Azeris make up 10 million of the 80-million population of Iran, which is also home to almost 100,000 Armenians.
If Turkey was just playing with her own safety and security, that would be one thing, but she isn’t. It is time for the United States, at least, to make clear statements that any larger conflict(s) that arise from Turkish adventures will not trigger any obligations on our part.
Put that marker out there now, while there is time.
