As the world watches what is unfolding in Ukraine no one know how this conflict ultimately will be resolved. I pray for the people of Ukraine and Europe it will end well but I have my doubts. However, one thing is certain, the free world can not afford to let a despot again impinge on the sovereignty of another free nation. As Ronald Regan stated: “There is no security or safety in the appeasement of evil.”

One of the mementos from my former life as a naval officer is a paper weight, that I display proudly on my desk marked “Naval Support Activity Republic of China” with an outline of Taiwan in the background. A subtle reminder that within my lifetime Taiwan was once viewed as the Republic of China and that the United States had a special relationship with the bulwark of democracy in the far east.

In retrospect, the United States was extremely naïve in assuming that if it allowed Communist China in the community of nations, it could remake that repressive regime in its own image. It is no secret that the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) through both economic and military power has a strategic goal of achieving world hegemony. Yet, despite this, U.S. corporations continue to kowtow to the Chinese communists while at the same time the PRC steals U.S. intellectual property, technology, and military secrets while sitting idly by and watch the decline of our own nation.

Unfortunately, by the stroke of a pen the 1979 U.S.-PRC. Joint Communique switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. In the Joint Communique, the United States recognized the government of the PRC as “the sole legal government of China, acknowledging the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.” The Joint Communique also stated that the United States will maintain cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan.

With that in mind, deterrence of Chinese aggression against Taiwan must be a stated goal and a commitment of any responsible U.S. administration. To simply look the other way and pretend it is not happening is negligent. History has proven that any attempt to placate or appease an international bully only emboldens them. As one of my older in-laws would say “You cannot change a tiger’s stripes.” Understanding this what can we do as a nation to defend the sovereignty of our former ally?

Admiral Davidson, in his outgoing congressional testimony as head of the United States Indo-Pacific Command last spring, estimated that “China would invade Taiwan in six years.” China hands now refer to this somber prediction as the “Davidson Window” and urge the United States to act now before it is too late.

Whatever we as a nation are going to do to deter Chinese aggression must begin now; it must be strategic and it must be applied at a steady strain regardless of the inevitable setbacks as world events change the geopolitical landscape as we are now witnessing in Ukraine. Chinese leaders have not attempted to forcibly occupy Taiwan yet simply because they are not confident the costs both during and after an invasion will outweigh the potential gain.

Our national leadership through continued naval presence and robust military assistance must ensure that the PRC unmistakably reaches this same conclusion time and time again. Once it senses a real or even perceived weakness or a lack of resolve on the part of the United States the games is over.

First, to accomplish this, the United States needs leverage. The United States must initiate and lead a broad coalition of nations to credibly convince china that crossing the Taiwan Straits would be too costly for it to launch a full-scale invasion.

Second, the United States must prepare Taiwan to withstand and then prevail in a Chinese-initiated missile attack. Taiwan’s defenses must be able to withstand the damage from a first strike and also be able to respond in kind. In addition, U.S. bases and facilities in the Pacific such as Guam and Hawaii must be hardened to withstand the inevitable retaliatory strike.

Third, the United States must stress to the PRC its resolve and nuclear deterrence capability so there can be no doubt of a Chinese misunderstanding. The use of tactical nuclear weapons against U.S. forces would result in an outcome not favorable to the PRC—the risk would not be worth the potential gain.

History has shown that initiating armed conflict results in a tragic outcome. Let’s hope the PRC has taken that lesson aboard and determined it is not worth the risk. But in the end, I suspect the United States will look the other way and express “grave concern” while the PRC takes over Taiwan and goes on to dominate the Pacific Rim and eventually surpass the United States.

So, no matter how you slice it, defense of Taiwan is the ultimate Hobson’s Choice—damned if you do, damned if you don’t.