Ukraine now appears to be winning its war against Russian aggression—an event that may someday be remembered as Ukraine’s victory in its belated war of independence. However, prominent voices are calling for an immediate, negotiated end to the war to avoid “provocation” of Russia or further economic disruption. There have been facile demands for Ukraine to accede to whatever peace terms Russia may accept, even if that would leave millions under brutal Russian occupation, give Russia a springboard for future attacks, and preclude Ukraine from being able to make sovereign decisions about future EU or NATO membership. One way of viewing these demands is through the lens of history. Below, consider an alternative voice during the American War of Independence, in which a fictional nobleman from the little-known, backwards central European kingdom of Ecalpon calls for the Americans to temper their desire for independence.
An open letter by a nobleman of the kingdom of Ecalpon, 1780
There can be no question of the bravery of those American rebels who have boldly sought to overthrow the mighty British Empire. However, their courageous choices have come at a considerable cost to others, as well as themselves. Europe’s trade flows have been disrupted by a war that now involves several other nations, with France, Spain, and the Netherlands now supporting the rebels. The infernal rising prices that we have witnessed in recent months are due to the restrictions on trade that this war has inflicted upon all parties. Even trade involving neutral nations has been affected, as the combatants try to prevent one another from trading with anyone, interdicting merchant ships. The Americans have even impertinently sent privateers to prey upon shipping in the British Isles, as though they have no compunction about inflicting their faraway conflict on others.
Moreover, there is a considerable chance that this war will escalate. The last major European war began in the backwoods of North America (with an incident instigated by Colonel George Washington), then spread to involve substantial fighting in continental Europe and beyond. The American war places such pressure on beleaguered Britain that it may choose to incite conflict on our continent, wreaking havoc among the German states.
We must take great measures to ensure that Britain is not further provoked, nor that it feels itself to be “cornered” with no good strategic options. The Americans’ continual irritation of Great Britain, by their refusal to come to terms, could lead Britain to angrily lash out at nations that it perceives as being supportive of the rebels, or even as being insufficiently supportive of Britain. Just as the Royal Navy utterly destroyed the American town of Falmouth at the beginning of this war, it could devastate coastal cities in Europe. Coastlines and even riverbanks could be subjected to amphibious assaults, with British forces ravaging our towns and farms. If we continue to poke the bulldog, it will bite fiercely, and it will not let go.
As for America, it is a faraway country of which we know nothing. Much as our hearts may cheer on these latter-day Davids who battle Goliath, their interests must be subordinated to those of European nations. Though the Americans have been subjected to countless iniquities, they must be compelled to come to reasonable terms with their monarch as quickly as possible. Perhaps their country can be partitioned, with Britain retaining control of New York and parts of the southern colonies. King George III and his government could be convinced to swear solemn oaths that they would not use these territories either to subvert the government of independent America or to launch its reconquest. Regardless of Britain’s past treatment of the colonists, it would surely abide by a treaty that guaranteed the future integrity and independence of American territory in return for an enduring peace, and would not use a peaceful interim merely to rearm and seek vengeance. There would be ample treaty provisions to manage border arrangements, and no nation—certainly not Britain—would dare to renounce a duly signed treaty ensuring tranquility and peaceful trade among nations.
Alternatively, the two sides could be reconciled, with the American colonies accepting an autonomous status within the British Empire. Any responsible government would be sure to honor pledges that gave its territories autonomy for decades, or even indefinitely. Maintaining such autonomy would be in Britain’s interest, as well. Its empire would benefit from the growing prosperity of America, including copious trade with it, while avoiding nearly all the costs of governing that land. It would take a very foolish government to unilaterally abrogate such a pledge, which would also undermine its diplomatic standing with all other nations.
To conclude, the Americans have achieved considerable successes against the British Empire, and could, in time, win control over the entirety of their country. However, we in Europe are quite literally paying a price: the costs of some items continue to rise inexorably, when they are available at all. The risk of the conflict escalating beyond its current bounds continues to haunt us. For these reasons, every type of available pressure must be applied to compel the Americans to accept a compromise with their British overlords, regardless of the cruelties that have been inflicted during and before this war. The time has come to demand an end to the conflict, irrespective of the number of Americans who are dying for their country or enduring occupation by foreign forces and rough mercenaries. Our interests require it.
