One of the many things that make The Economist an essential publication is that it is fact heavy. They rarely dumb down their articles and do not suffer the cult of personality by their contributors. There are no bylines.
An area they cover that others blissfully ignore is Sub-Saharan Africa. Their latest issue give a superb summary of what is happening to what should be, and in many ways sadly is, the crown jewel of that continent, the Republic of South Africa.
The ruling party, ANC, inherited from the Apartheid government all the raw materials to set the benchmark for modern success; the rule of law, infrastructure, thriving (relatively) economy & more. Though still better off than her neighbors, it seems they have chosen a different path once the exceptional Nelson Mandela left the stage.
That is just one part of Africa though, and we are running short of time for policy makers to get their minds around what challenges will come from that part of the world mid-century.
Graphs tell part of the story about what mid-century has in store – it is not a formula for peace, prosperity, and the growth of civil society.
African economies will be less able to provide an acceptable standard of living for a growing population. Surrounding nations in Asia, Europe and the New World have neither the public support or economic ability to take in excess population coming in – limiting a safety valve of mass emigration as a partial solution. Add to it food & water insecurity, legacy tribal antagonisms, and religious conflict – well, there you have it.
In a way, the potential friction points with Russia and China have a comfortable feel to it. The challenge of radical Islamic terrorism has become part of the background noise. We have plenty of ideas about those issues.
What will the international community’s response be to the brew cooking in Africa? How much time until it pivots into sustained and widespread conflict beyond its already unstable present? Are we there already?
We will find out soon enough – the numbers give us all the warning we need.
