Jerry Hendrix returned to a topic on Monday we both have a passion for; NATO. For way too long, most of NATO has been content to underspend on their own defense, satisfied that if nothing else, in a crunch America will do it. You see it in the macro when you look at relative effort as shown in % of GDP on defense, and in the micro by anyone who tried to fill a no-kidding NATO CJSOR.
With Russia regaining her footing and probing her near abroad, some in NATO are starting to increase investment in our mutual defense. Led by Estonia who is already above the 2% threshold, the Baltic Republics are turning around. Poland is standing strong, but much of the rest of the former Eastern Block has more work to do. Former NATO workhorses Germany, The Netherlands and others continue to underperform as well.
Jerry’s mention of the North Atlantic had me thinking of his work in 2017 that brought the importance of the GIUK Gap back above the natsec ambient noise. It led me back to one of my regular bar-top conversations; how would Europe hold its own while waiting for North America to show up if fate had deterrence fail?
No “But America!”s allowed. No, “There will be plenty of warning time to position forces.” No assumptions. History is what happens when you’re assuming other things.
As I and others have warned (and superbly demonstrated in the Norwegian series Okkupert), the American public is just an election and a few twists away from turning its back on being the West’s security guarantor. Even if we didn’t say, “No thanks” to the next European exercise in self-destruction, any Red Hat team worth their salt can come up with a half-dozen vignettes that would keep the bulk of American naval power out of the North Atlantic for six-months to a year – or at least keep the sorties at a fraction of our complacent best-case COA.
It would be unprofessional to dismiss conventional conflict with Russia as an tsk-tsk-out-of-the-question possibility. Wars that make less sense on paper have been started for obscure reasons no one understood the day before the war started or even understood when the war ended.
Look at capabilities.
What can European NATO do to keep her SLOC open to the rest of the world?
Who are the front line European NATO nations in the North Atlantic and what capability do they have to meet that threat if you consider the balance of European NATO are Continental or Mediterranean powers and will be focused elsewhere?
Who will have to face the Russian Northern Fleet as it turns the corner at Bear Island? Norway, Great Britain, Denmark, and Iceland. Sure, one could argue France or The Netherlands etc would help out – but put that to the “other flanks need help too” side, or at least call it a wash as especially for the Royal Navy – not all their assets will be in home waters. Those numbers will work for these purposes.
Canada has allowed itself to be a Day-0 rounding error at 1% of GDP on defense, so in this case we’ll keep her to the side and assume she will move at some point after their larger North American friend does – which in this scenario won’t be anytime soon.
Let’s look at these nations in isolation from North America a bit just so we can see what they have to throw at the problem. As most American minds need a refresher in the scale factor of how very small in relative terms our NATO allies are, as a reference point for the American mind it is helpful to relate these nations to American states.
From largest to smallest, let us speak as adults about what they bring to the fight.
Great Britain makes the best effort at the collective defense of NATO in the North Atlantic, spending closer to 1.8% of GDP vice the “minimum” of 2% of GDP, but “Great” is a relative term. She has a population roughly of California and Texas combined, but as she is not as “rich” as the USA on a per capita basis. Her GDP is roughly that only of California alone. California’s GDP is just 14% of the USA’s collective GDP.
Population wise, Denmark is next. There are only 5.7 million Danes, roughly the equivalent of the population of Wisconsin. She spends 1.1% of her GDP on defense and has a national GDP in line with Arizona.
Oil rich Norway is right behind Denmark with a population of 5.2 million, in line with South Carolina. A little better effort with 1.6% GDP on defense and a better performing economy due to oil, but that national GDP still only reaches that of Maryland. Yes, little Maryland.
Iceland is, well, Iceland. With no military outside a paper thin Coast Guard, if you are generous with your accounting, she spends only .1-.26% of her Vermont sized GDP on defense. Her population is roughly that of Corpus Christi, Texas.
These are the front line nations that European NATO will have to lean on should Russia decide to venture in to the North Atlantic and North America will not/cannot move at Day-0.
What about Russia itself? If you look at their population of 144 million, aggregate the front line nations above plus France, you match that easily. Economically, Russia is a basket case with only 46% of the GDP of Great Britain alone. Put that to the side for a bit, her military strength is considerable. She makes up for her poverty in GDP by effort, roughly spending 5.4% of her GDP on defense. Still, in raw numbers, European NATO spends a lot more than Russia. As a matter of fact, just the front line nations together spend 85% of what Russia does. Sure, due to cost, Russia can buy more for her coin, but not in the extreme.
Overmatch. NATO needs to overmatch in what should be its back yard, the North Atlantic, and not just including North America. NATO cannot assume that North America will be able to flood the zone in the first few weeks or months. Anyone can come up with a half-dozen ways to mitigate or delay USA and Canadian military moves to defend the GUIK gap – but if the West expects the New World to come to the aid of or at least feed it, then the SLOC and air routes need to be kept open.
Wars do not have to be long. At a time when things moved much slower, the 19th Century Franco-Prussian War lasted a bit over six months, two decades later the Spanish-American War a bit more than three months. You fight with what you have.
If you want the USA to give you that overmatch in all theaters, then at a minimum, you should be able to go toe-to-toe against the Russians in your own back yard, on your own, at the start.
They can’t. They can’t even go toe-to-toe.
What does Russia have to challenge access? Submarines and long range air. That’s right kids; the same as in the Cold War.
Geography does not change. Time-distance has not changed all that much either. The systems have evolved, mostly incrementally. The scale on both ends are lower, but the challenge is the same.
So, what is the “so what?” Simple; NATO’s European North Atlantic front nations need to keep waking up and invest accordingly.
Let’s just look at what they have to keep the SLOC open at the start. What would they be facing? First a few assumptions. Ignore any Russian assets in the Baltic or Black Seas. They are either busy, sunk, or otherwise not a factor in the North Atlantic. Let’s just focus on the non-strategic missile forces of the Russian Northern Fleet, the natural threat to the North Atlantic.
For brevity purposes, we will also discount Russian long range naval aviation and surface forces as not being a factor – though a most-dangerous COA that is fun to play with does – so we’ll stick to the real threat, submarines.
Depending on your sources these numbers may shift a bit, but on paper they have 4 SSGN, 13 SSN and 6 SS available. Assume that ~50% would be available to surge in to the North Atlantic. That has 11 Russian submarines pushing through the GIUK Gap and in to the shipping lanes leading to Western Europe.
Using the front-line nations outlined above – and acknowledging the fact that what few surface ASW capable ships that are available will be dedicated to convoy and CV/SAG/Amphib protection – what do the front line nations have available to go after the Russian submarines?
The Royal Navy has 6 SSN. Using the same % we gave the Russians; they can sortie 3. Denmark got rid of her SS two decades ago, so that leaves Norway’s 6 SS; they can sortie 3.
11 v. 6.
What about long range air ASW? British have 9 P-8 on order, but the first does not show up until 2019. The Norwegians have 5 P-3. Let’s be optimistic they have can keep 3 of the 5 at least PMC for ASW every day. That give you about 1 ASW bird in the air at a time.
One.
Every war where submarines have a presence have one factor in common; before the war and for the first few phases of the war, assumptions about the ability to find and kill enemy submarines were wildly optimistic.
ASW is hard in theory; it is even harder in practice. Even when you find them, you cannot have full faith in the terminal end of the kill chain until you try it. Recent British and Swedish attempts at executing the pointy end of the kill chain proved this again. The assumption that submarine-to-submarine ASW’s kill chain has more effective teeth … but again … we don’t know that for sure.
What does work real well? A submarine’s ability to sink surface ships early on as the targets try to figure things out.
As we welcome everyone back to history, our European friends need to redouble their efforts. They know better than most to not underestimate the Russians. They know better than most they cannot warm themselves or feed themselves if they are at war in the east, and the shipping lanes are closed in the west.
They should also understand a national regression to the mean. America still is not fully comfortable with its unnatural role as a global quasi-empire – especially when we seem more interested in others’ freedoms than they are.
If you want a friend, be a friend. Friends pull their fair share of the load. Germany needs to join Poland and Estonia in the East focused on land power. France and Italy balanced with an eye to securing the Med, with France helping the Southern Atlantic approaches with Spain and Portugal. Belgium and The Netherlands – you will starve earlier than most – reinvest to help the British keep the SLOC open to your west, and to assist the Germans and the French in the air and on the ground to the east. Norway and Denmark – you are small but have a comparative advantage at sea. Great Britain and Canada need to at least be able to control their own coastal waters before they can help the alliance. Neither can do that on their own today.
The Russian challenge will grow every year. Is NATO pacing? Not enough. If you are ready to go it alone, you won’t have to worry about having to – America will happily be there next to you. Think you are entitled to your defense burden being shouldered by the American taxpayer while you continue to make excuses and kick back? Not how friends act and you will push Americans to act in ways you won’t like – and neither will many of us.
