the rise of India and China

More Important Than the Fall of the Soviet Union

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The last few years, China has been very busy in the Indian Ocean;

Last July, China opened its first (and so far only) foreign military base at Djibouti. The base includes a naval port, large helicopter base, and accommodation for 10,000 troops.

The Djibouti base is only the first step in what is likely to become a network of Chinese bases across the Indian Ocean. Many analysts had long thought that the next Chinese naval base would be established at Gwadar (Pakistan). The port city is on track to become a major waypoint in China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the Indian Ocean node of a new overland pathway to western China.

China’s plans for Gwadar are ambitious. There are reports that it is planning to build accommodation for up to 500,000 Chinese nationals in Gwadar within five years, and it seems likely they will be accompanied by a large contingent of Chinese marines. This would overwhelm Gwadar’s existing population of around 100,000 people, effectively making Gwadar China’s first colony in the Indian Ocean.

China has a close and longstanding relationship with Tanzania and recently took control of the newly built port of Bagamoyo, around 50 kilometres north of the Dar es Salaam.

China will also likely require naval facilities in the central and/or eastern Indian Ocean as part of a new Indian Ocean network. China recently took control of the port of Hambantota in southern Sri Lanka, leading to a lot of speculation about Beijing’s intentions. But the Sri Lankan government strenuously denies that China will be permitted to develop any naval presence there, and it has previously given formal undertakings to India that it would not do so.

India is not blind to Chinese moves in “her” ocean. Not content with her good bases on the sub-continent, she is moving out;

In a significant step to New Delhi’s quest for influence in the Indo-Pacific region, India has signed an agreement with the Indian Ocean archipelago nation of Seychelles for the development, management, operation and maintenance of facilities on Assumption Island.

The island in Seychelles is leased to India for the operation of a naval base and air strip by the Indian navy.

Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar and Seychelles Secretary of State Barry Faure signed the agreement on Saturday.

“Relations with countries in the Indian Ocean Region and nurturing a climate of peace and stability are important cornerstones of India’s foreign policy,” Jaishankar said following the signing of the agreement.

“Our vision for the region is based on cooperation and collective action to tackle maritime security challenges.”

These moves tie in to a quote from the former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger I covered over at my homeblog earlier this week.

“You must never forget that the unification of Germany is more important than the development of the European Union, that the fall of the Soviet Union is more important than the unification of Germany, and that the rise of India and China is more important than the fall of the Soviet Union.”

On so many fronts, this century is looking more and more interesting, in the Chinese way.

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