Many of us have been waiting a long time for Japan to emerge from her post WWII shell in the national security arena. Her past is her past, but that is fading from living memory and decades of her example as a modern, advanced, and constructive player on the world stage has earned her the benefit of the doubt externally, and should promote internally an acceptance of larger responsibilities.

As anyone who has worked with them can tell you, on the military side they are exceptional professionals, and their equipment is top notch. In the world’s interlocking alliances of democratic nations, she has some of the greatest potential to served as a bulwark against the expansionist desires of the Chinese Communist Party and to strengthen like-minded nations. Her neighbors, some with significance historical baggage in relationship with Japan, are starting to warm to her. If you can combine that warming with an increased desire and capability in the military arena from the government and people of Japan, Japan’s importance emerges in clear relief to the background noise in the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean – from Taiwan to India.

In between Taiwan and India is a nation both Japan and the United States has a spotty recent history with, but a growing warm relationship in the present as the past fades and the future requirements define themselves. That nation, of course, is Vietnam.

Vietnam is still run by her Communist Party … but it is a Communist Party with Vietnamese characteristics. I think it is safe to say that Vietnam does not see a danger to her territorial or political security from a 21st Century Japan or USA … but China is another matter. Her misgivings with China are at least a thousand years older than any flash-in-the-pan modern conflicts with Japan or the USA – and the seeds of that long-standing conflict are right there on the border and adjacent seas.

We’ve seen a warming the last decade especially between Vietnam and the United States. We don’t have to be allies in an official sense … and I don’t think either nation wants that … but you can be friends.

What about Japan and external defense developments? Well, I need to be paying closer attention, as this news hit on two fronts:
1) Japan selling military equipment to other nations.
2) Japan selling to Vietnam.

Japan plans to sign an agreement allowing it to export defense equipment and technology to Vietnam, part of its push to bolster the defense capabilities of Indo-Pacific nations to counter Chinese maritime advances.

Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced Tuesday that he will make his first foreign trip in his new job next week, visiting Vietnam and Indonesia. He is expected to sign the Vietnam deal as part of this.
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Japan lifted its ban on weapons exports in 2014 under the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology, which state that it may not transfer arms to a party to a conflict, that any transfers must contribute to Japan’s security, and that Japan must give advance consent before the recipient transfers the arms to a third party.
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The specifics of Japan’s exports will depend on what Vietnam wants. Japan has been promoting its P-1 patrol plane and C-2 transport plane abroad, and also signed a deal with the Philippines in August to export a warning and control radar system developed by Mitsubishi Electric.

There is also a chance that the P-3s that the P-1 will replace may be offered. Maritime patrol and cargo aircraft would seem to be a good first move by Japan. They aren’t that scary but open the door for a lot of coordination and interaction between the nations’ militaries over the long term.

All this is good for everyone. Maybe 2020 isn’t all that bad.

As a final note: for those of you on twitter and are interested in following Vietnamese military developments, add Lee Ann Quann (@AnnQuann) to your follow list for a nice stream of OSNIT.