The phrase “Great Power Competition” is often used as a proxy for “China and Russia.” That is unquestionably accurate with China, and to a lesser extent Russia, but when you look to the high seas, it really needs to be seen as shorthand for China.
No one else. Russia isn’t planning to make that challenge.
The Defense Ministry ordered two frigates of project 22350 which are to become the ninth and tenth warships of the series. The Northern and Pacific fleets are expected to get four frigates each by 2027 and the Black Sea fleet will receive two frigates. The warships will reinforce the Russian blue-water fleet which currently operates ships built in 1980 – early 1990s.
The contract for two frigates was expected, but the deal for a record batch of corvettes was a surprise. The Navy ordered ten ships. Eight of them will be built by project 20380. The corvettes have an upgraded construction, arms and seaworthiness. The Sovershenny and the Gromky corvettes of the Pacific fleet have recently made a long ocean sortie. Most new corvettes will also operate in the Far East.
…
Financial problems and difficulties with new arms and hardware likely postpone prospective projects. The Navy plans to build up and replace outdated warships and submarines as soon as possible by tested warships. It also plans to reinforce the Arctic group, the expert said.
Yes, Russia has some very capable nuclear submarines, but they are very few and becoming fewer. Yes they have some impressive non-nuclear submarines and small surface combatants, but you have to get in their near-seas for them to be a threat. Yes, they have a lot of nuclear weapons, but in the next big war to come, they will be as much of a tactical concern as chemical weapons were in the last World War.
To see the Russian Navy through mid-century, you have to look at what they are building today.
The Russians have, correctly, re-emphasized themselves as a continental land power with nearshore maritime concerns. They are a physically large nation with a medium-large sized population (9th in the world). She spends a lot of her national GDP (#11 in the world behind South Korea) on defense (#10 in % of GDP at 3.9%). She has less than ideal demographics and structural economic issues that will preclude a challenge in that domain anytime soon.
Simply put, Russia does not have much additional money to spend at sea with her requirements ashore for her land an air forces. Yes, she can produce some regional effects at sea and her submarines could, in spots, create bother … but nothing that her much larger and richer European rivals can’t challenge as needed with a helpful assist by the USA where there are gaps.
The growing fleet – and global ambitions – of the Chinese Communist Part on the other hand, are clear and growing.
“Great Power Competition” is singular, it isn’t “Great Powers Competition.” Perhaps we need to use a more direct description than “Great Power.”
Keep the focus on the PLAN and the Indo-Pacific theater. If we prepare for that, we can flex elsewhere for a lesser challenge if needed.
