Future wars will be fought not by infantry, but by robots. Drones, autonomous vehicles, and artificial intelligence systems are already an integrated part of the peacetime operations and could soon be the primary way wars are fought. Unmanned undersea vehicles (UUVs) will bury themselves in the mud outside a red force harbor and wait for a ship to drive by so they can attach themselves. Submarines will get accurate positional fixes from unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) that spend their entire useful life in the water, acting as cube satellites for the surface of the ocean, connecting the seabed to space. Autonomous software bots will endlessly attack ship-to-satellite network connections, controlled by blue and red forces alike. Long-stay ocean gliders will spend months on slow patrols as maritime bell ringers, always on watch for the adversary. Ships will carry unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for over-the-horizon patrols, sending information through a system of USVs that double as charging stations and data-collection hubs for UUVs. Understanding the inevitability of the robotic frontier, Navy leaders must ask the question: How do we lead the unmanned?
The Navy established Unmanned Undersea Vehicle Squadron One (UUVRON) as an answer to that question. The idea was to build a squadron of UUVs that are deployable on any platform around the world. Research and development occurs alongside deployment workups. Creative projects frequently come to maturity at UUVRON through iterative research and development, the polar opposite of traditional submarine workup cycles. Sailors come up with new ideas and are given tools, such as machine learning, to make them a reality. A strong startup mentality persists at UUVRON because sailors find it fulfilling to work through hard, important problems that have not been solved yet. Leading the unmanned means providing technology and direction to the sailors who will solve the hard problem of unmanned system delivery, deployment, and recovery.
“Infantry Wins Battles, Logistics Win Wars,” General John Pershing
Deploying UUVs is a notoriously tricky logistics problem. Depending on the size, the robots are either launched by hand, pushed into the water on a cart, or lowered into the water using a crane. At sea, it is more difficult and a larger vessel is needed. UUVRON does not have large assets capable of forward deployment and uses vessels of opportunity from the fleet, necessitating coordination with organizations that do not routinely work with unmanned systems. Outside the UUV community, there is not much understanding of UUV mission capabilities. Time is spent explaining their tactical significance in the maritime battle space, building relationships with supporting commands that provide vessels. But even after considerable time and effort, reliable vessels are scarce and missions are infrequent. The problems UUVRON faces today with delivery, deployment, and recovery are the precursor to problems that will be faced by leaders in the unmanned fleet of tomorrow.
System delivery, although simple in concept, is a problem for UUVRON. Logistical issues often dog delivery efforts and shipping problems affect mission readiness. UUVs are built to be disassembled and shipped in pelican cases along with the lithium ion batteries that power the vehicles. The batteries are required to spend several weeks in customs as part of the overseas shipping process. Although desired by area commanders and unmanned leadership alike, just in time delivery is not a logistical reality for mission ready UUVs. Delays during shipping mean sailors spend time in theater waiting for vehicles to arrive before area familiarization can begin. Constraints on the delivery portion of unmanned operations can handicap a mission if leaders are not prepared.
Deployment of UUVs is the most involved portion of the process and the important to get right. Pier-side network connections are established. Power for charging, a lay-down area for vehicle preps, and forklifts for transport are required. Area experts assist with water space preparation. Pre-launch surveys and area familiarization are completed. Detailed weather and oceanographic analysis are done to prevent vehicle loss. Traffic patterns are closely considered to find safe routes. Timelines must be precise, taking into account any potential delays caused by environmental complexity. Contingency plans are made in case the recovery area is inaccessible. Missions are meticulously planned and all anticipated actions are programmed as autonomous behaviors for the UUV. Sea floor gradient, freshwater inlets, bottom composition, and many other constantly changing factors create a complex web of requirements that the team must overcome. Preparation is key to unmanned system deployment and vital to mission success.
Recovery starts the clock on the critical process of data management and analysis. High-volume information is collected rapidly, generating hundreds of gigabytes after only a few hours. Machine learning for acoustic imagery is in nascent stages necessitating human data review. Proper analysis takes days to accomplish, and weeks will pass before the information gets to decision makers. Real-time undersea battle space awareness is far from reality, but rapidly iterating and improving the recovery process tightens the timeline from intel to action.
Logistics is king in undersea robotics. Successes and failures are defined by the plan and its execution. Delivery, deployment, and recovery are the base principles of unmanned system success and deserve close attention from leaders. Taking lessons learned from these early operations is imperative for leaders who will integrate unmanned systems into the fleet.
Unmanned Paradigm Shift
The paradigm of naval warfare must shift as unmanned systems begin filling a larger role. Considering the personnel, their mentality, and the logistical requirements, it is clear that today’s Navy is not yet ready for the changing tides of warfare. Unmanned systems are blazing a trail to the front of the Navy’s peacetime and wartime strategy. Ship-centric planning is not compatible with unmanned asset allocation and in future ships will support systems that extend the reach far beyond their human counterparts. Every ship in the fleet can move and place nodes in an unmanned network of data gathering devices and leaders must be ready.
Like any good strategy, the unmanned paradigm shift starts with the people. Making an unmanned designator establishes a community of sailors that can build a knowledge base. Expertise rises and the unmanned community grows, expanding influence around the fleet. A rating brings recognition to the efforts that these sailors make every day and shows that they are valuable to the future of the Navy. A warfare designation and career path is needed for sailors and leaders alike to bring the community to relevance in the Navy. A high baseline of knowledge and leadership build the strong foundation for the next version of modern warfare.
Software engineers in Silicon Valley are not the only people who can create a disruptive environment. Given the tools and training, sailors are capable of innovating using machine-learning techniques to advance autonomous capability. Even without advanced degrees or venture funding, a startup mentality is prominent among the enlisted UUV community. In a startup, iterating and testing new ideas can yield valuable returns. UUVs are the perfect platform for trying new things that would otherwise be considered risky since unmanned systems are particularly forgiving. Instead of a nuclear reactor and a submarine full of people, UUVs have hard drives and cheap battery packs. A submarine is an unacceptable loss, but losing a UUV has much less severe consequences. Loss acceptability keeps the risk low while fostering a creative space for innovation. When it comes to the unmanned frontier, there is always a way and no reason to give up.
During World War II, assets were designed to take a beach head and push forward into enemy territory. Alongside development of mutually destructive arsenals, the United States maintained and built new ships to support a battalion of Marines and landing craft. Over time, fewer resources were allocated to that strategy as its relevancy faded, and money was spent on aircraft carriers and submarines. This is how it should be; remember, successful past strategies but shift focus forward. Aircraft carriers and submarines will begin to fade from the strategy, giving way to the unmanned paradigm. U.S. ships will bear the logistical burden of unmanned battle space preparation. These same ships will deliver offensive robotic systems during times of conflict. Battle space logistics, like what UUVRON takes on, will make or break tomorrow’s Navy.
Leadership in a changing world takes courage and honesty. Leaders will fail if they do not face the hard problems of tomorrow by properly preparing their people today. It is the responsibility Navy leaders to provide the resources, time, and direction to the sailors who put the service on their backs and heave the weight forward. It is the job of Navy leaders to foster an environment of innovation and put technology in the hands of sailors who can use it. It is time to let go of the warfare model of the past for success in the future. If Navy leaders can apply these principles, then leading the unmanned is a challenge the service will be ready to face.
