Time-distance, geography, and a nation’s need for trade and resources – these things are constant. As a nation grows in strength, their need for trade and resources grows in parallel with its ability to bring all the levers of national power to bear.

… a small Chinese navy task force entered the Indian Ocean last week. China’s CCTV7 has also broadcast images of the Chinese ships sailing in the eastern Indian Ocean.

“A naval force of at least one modern destroyer, a frigate, an amphibious assault ship and a support tanker entered the Indian Ocean last week,” said the News Corp report, which speculated that the flotilla would “linger” in the area.

Maldivan President Abdulla Yameen declared a 15-day state of emergency on February 5 after his refusal to comply with a Supreme Court decision to free political opposition leaders. The showdown escalated after Supreme Court judges and other political opponents were arrested.

Yameen has forged close ties with China and courted investments from Beijing. New Delhi and Washington are displeased with Yameen’s pro-China stance, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is reportedly mulling sending troops to Maldives to intervene in the crisis.

Maldivian opposition leader Mohamed Nasheed recently charged that China was “buying up the Maldives” through its ties to Yameen. Nasheed, who is in exile in Sri Lanka, called attention to the sizable debts that Maldives has run up with Beijing. He alleged that China might be tempted to seize public assets such as ports in return.

All nations who have the ability eventually in their rise find the utility of the deployed amphibious group to make a point. They also realize that if one nation puts all their hopes in diplomacy, has little economic or informational power – and lacks confidence in its military lever – then the nation that has confidence in all four can often get what they want … especially if they are the firstest with the mostest.

Look close at this map. Brazen isn’t quite the word to use here … but this is quite the brazen move in to India’s back yard. Absolutely critical for the security of China’s access to markets, but still right in India’s face. Not since the Soviet Union parked itself all along the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico has such a reach been made.

If I were China, I would be doing the same thing. What they are doing is well within historical norms for strong nation states – but it comes with risks.

Does it make for a safer or more stable international system? No, but nothing says that the international system will get more stable over time. It has always waxed and waned throughout history, bending towards more stability, but not in a straight line.

The next play here is firmly in India’s court.