Even in the midst of a global depression, the 1930s were an incredible time of technological growth in the private sector that by the end of that decade began to show itself at war.
The end of WWI gave hints of what was to come two decades later; aviation, tanks, submarines, even aircraft carriers used for deep strike – so you can’t say that their dominance in shaping the outcome of WWII was “revolutionary” – but it was accelerated evolution. You can see the connection between the Sopwith Camel and the Supermarine Spitfire, but the leap from one to the other is as great as the P-51 to the F-22, just in a shorter timeframe. The 30s saw the quickening more than any decade.
Though the military was usually quick to adopt what looked promising, in many areas the big breakthroughs in technology and concepts came on the civilian side of the house. A perfect example was in aviation.
While most militaries were still putting about in biplanes covered with doped canvas, the air racing community was experimenting with aluminum and such concepts as “find the largest engine you can and then build a plan around it. As such, you can see the linage from 1931’s Granville Gee Bee Zee to 1941’s Republic’s P-47 Thunderbolt.
Those rapid developments also had their testing ground. By the time the Spanish Civil War kicked off in 1936, Germany, Italy, and the Soviet Union all had combat aircraft that needed a place to prove what was briefed on paper.
As many did at the time and continue to do today, so many lessons came from that war that were put to use a few years later when war went global.
This technology adoption interplay repeats itself throughout the history of war. The telegraph, railroad, steam engine, and iron plate had a similar trajectory in the second half of the 19th Century.
In one area that most readers here know, we are seeing something similar circumstances today; unmanned systems. They are not new, depending on how you define them, they’ve been with us well over 3/4 of a century and have been used in every conflict of substance since.
If you feel there’s a quickening as of late, you are not alone. Moore’s Law at varying magnitudes in computing, energy efficiency, AI, manufacturing, and materials is dovetailing with a decrease in cost. The resulting confluence opens the door to more, smaller, smarter, and deadlier systems.
Again, while the military was making its slow, plodding progress, the more nimble civilian sector was the first to find niches – niches opportunistic people who see the military crossover leveraged to their advantage.
Sure, some people giggled when the first Syrian rebel forces attached badminton shuttlecocks to grenades to drop from toy quadcopters, but fewer were laughing when they started to see swarms flying in formation for entertainment purposes in front of millions.
You don’t have to wear a red-hat for long to see how if you marry that with the right sensor and code, you have a rather effective smart, mobile, and deadly self-aware anti-personnel/material mine – a flying minefield if you were. A little more code, and you have … well … pick your nightmare.
So, we have our hint … what is the civilian world telling us about the potential threat? How big is it?
Let’s go see what Ang Ahlstrom at VisualCapitalist has to say;
…demand for industrial robots keeps growing at a robust 14% per year, setting the stage for 3.1 million industrial robots in operation globally by 2020.
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Significant factors include advancements in machine learning and computer vision, since the prospect of new functionality leads to more use cases and increased demand. In addition, the maturation of 3D printing technology and the soaring interest in collaborative robots also deserve some of the credit.
What’s interesting though, is that according to experts, the record demand for robots is actually largely in response to the notable decline in unit costs.ARK Investment Management, a leading researcher in this market, says that industrial robot costs are expected to drop a solid 65% between 2015 and 2025. Impressively, the cost per robot will plunge from $31,000 to $11,000 over that decade of time.
Easier production and less cost almost always comes with lower barrier of entry.
If you think that the civilian sector is just now getting on board, you’re wrong. About eight years wrong. The pivot was in the middle of President Obama’s first term.
As we already discussed the ubiquitous Moore’s Law, time for you to learn a new law, “Wright’s Law.”
Wright’s Law, which states: “for every cumulative doubling in number of units produced, costs will decline by a consistent percentage”. In the field of robotics that cost decline, also known as the “learning rate”, has been around 50%.
Scale up or scale down, everything that is used to make industrial robots can be repurposed for military use if you have the imagination, will, and flexible ROE.
…and where is this all coming together the fastest? It wouldn’t be in the area many are looking as the greatest danger of global conflict kicking off again, is it?
At present, the largest market share of industrial robots is held in the Asia-Pacific region – namely, China, Japan, Korea, and India.
Of course it is.
