So, what does one do with this D&G?
No reason to parse every word, that is something for CENTCOM/C5F to work on, but it does beg the question; what does a premier naval power do on the other side of the world when operating on the edge of the territorial waters of an itchy, insecure regional power?
The USN and the maritime portion of various Iranian security entitles have been playing this game for the better part of 40 years.
In this iteration, what are the Iranian interests and what are our interests? The reactions of one vs. the other is important.
There are two ends of the spectrum of a scale to look at this from. On one end, we can call it the Red Most Likely COA, is to treat this as the maritime equivalent of a bunch of teenagers running circles around The Olds in a houseboat on Lake Havasu. Unneighborly, rude, and slightly illegal. Worth The Olds taking some pictures of and making official complaints about, but no reason for Uncle Fred to whip out the shotgun over. The Iranians are just going for a photo op and to create some nice video for internal uses.
The other end of the spectrum, we can call it Red Most Dangerous COA, is the Iranians trying to provoke some kind of conflict with us, or are tying to pattern our ships for some later aggression by them if that window opens in support of their interests.
If the former, then President Trump’s tweet this AM may be an overreaction and, if not properly shaped by well written ROE, could lead to an escalation that no one wants or will be able to control.
If the later, then perhaps this could have a deterrent effect to let the Iranians know, in a fashion, “Not today Satan.” With properly shaped by well written ROE, the effect of getting the Iranians to dial it back will get the desired results, at least for us.
Where is the greatest risk here? As in all situations where you have two nations’ militarizes who don’t get along, operating in close proximity, trying to make the other blink – there is a chance that some individual will make a mistake, leading to the wrong response, that begets another response that soon creates its own spiraling inertia.
There is an obligation of a strong power who has no desire but stability to make an extra step to de-escalate a situation throwing sparks. Not retreat, but within limits – show restraint. If the weaker power decides to step over a line to draw blood, then respond as one should – but do not be the initiating force.
