There are some wars that come like a bolt out of the blue, but those are rare. Most wars come slowly, building pressure on pressure; event on event. Some come so slow that those present don’t see it coming and are surprised when it arrives … but in hindsight, it seems so clear.
That historical pattern came to mind this week as the Armenian-Azerbaijan simmering conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh that has been going on and off since the fall of the Soviet Union once again broke above the background noise.
Consult your maps and ethnographic history of the region – and this makes sense;
It’s unclear what started this latest escalation. Azerbaijan says Armenia provoked them with aggression. Armenia says Azerbaijani forces attacked. Tensions have risen since July, when several days of clashes rocked the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. These clashes killed 11 Azerbaijani soldiers and one civilian, Azerbaijan said, and prompted tens of thousands of protesters to take to the streets of Baku, demanding the region’s recapture. Turkey, seeking an enhanced regional role and an ally of the ethnically Turkic Azerbaijanis, has been offering support — perhaps military — and loudly backed Azerbaijan’s claims.
That is to the east of Turkey, rubbing a traditional enemy Russia – Armenia’s patron – the wrong way. So let’s keep going around the compass.
Between 10 August-20 September escalation remained concentrated in northern Iraq while limited operations targeting PKK militants in Turkey’s south east and east continued. This period saw an uptick in both PKK militant and Turkish secuirty force fatalities. Crisis Group confirmed a total of 11 security force fatalities (2 of them in northern Iraq). In Turkey’s east and southeast PKK and security force fatalities were recorded in rural areas of Van, Hakkari and Ağrı provinces.
America has forces and vested interests in Iraqi Kurdistan, so add the USA to the list of friction points.
The United Nations has urged Turkey to investigate possible war crimes and other rights violations it says were carried out by armed groups in the area of northern Syria it controls.
Michelle Bachelet, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, said violence and criminality was rife in those areas of Syria.
In a statement on Friday, Bachelet’s UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR) said it had noted an “alarming pattern in recent months of grave violations”, having documented increased killings, kidnappings, unlawful transfers of people, and seizures of land and properties and forcible evictions without any apparent military necessity.
The victims include people perceived to be allied with opposing parties or as being critical of the actions of the Turkish-affiliated armed groups, Bachelet’s office said.
Turkey’s Syrian operations create friction not just with the Syrian government, but the USA (again), Russia (again), most of Europe due to the refugee issue, and to throw some flavor in the mix, an ancient enemy, Persia … I’m sorry, Iran and her proxies.
Let’s keep going.
Earlier this year, reports emerged that Turkey was using battle-hardened mercenaries from Syria to support the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). Estimates placed the deployment of Syrian mercenaries in Libya at more than 3,000 — and some as high as 6,000.
Experts told DW that the presence of Turkey-backed Syrian mercenaries in Libya had effectively tipped the balance for pro-GNA forces. The alleged operation in Azerbaijan shared hallmarks of the Libyan escapade.
“Many of the mercenaries were highly experienced fighters of grueling urban combat fought in Aleppo, Hama, Idlib and, more recently, as paramilitary operatives against the Kurds in northern Syria,” said Agily.
Her Libyan adventures have brought her in to points of friction with another historical enemy, Egypt, the Russians (again), and France.
Yes, France. Remember this?
The situation escalated in mid-August after a dangerous confrontation between several Turkish and a French frigates in the Mediterranean Sea. The French frigate “Courbet” was detected by a Turkish fire control radar – usually the preliminary stage to an attack. The French had wanted to inspect a suspicious ship that was suspected of transporting unauthorized military equipment to Libya. Because, as it has been said in French military circles for some time, Turkey is repeatedly undermining the arms embargo against Libya and is bringing military material into the country across the Mediterranean.
After the incident, Macron first sent an angry tweet and then two Rafale fighter jets and the frigate “La Fayette” into the eastern Mediterranean. The Elysée Palace is convinced that this is the only language Erdoğan understands. Berlin looked with concern at the worsening conflict between two NATO partners. Merkel intervened on both sides.
How about to the west?
The European Union is preparing to sanction Turkey. “We are clear and determined in defending European Union’s interests and solidarity with Greece and Cyprus,” said EU foreign policy Chief Josep Borell Friday. “We must walk a fine line between preserving a true space for dialogue and, at the same time, showing collective strength,” he added.
Energy dispute?
Neither Athens nor Ankara, though, shows any sign of backing down in a quarrel over drilling rights. Greece and the Western Europeans say maritime law is on the side of Athens and they accuse Turkey of brinkmanship and bullying. Both Greece and Turkey have cancelled military leave and mobilized their navies and air forces.
Turkey Monday accused Greece of “piracy” and warned it will stand up to Athens’ alleged efforts to militarize islands near its coast. The Greeks denied claims that they are deploying troops on the island of Kastellorizo in violation of treaties. The island is just two kilometers from the Turkish coast. The spokesman of Turkey’s ruling party, Omer Celik, said, “Pointing guns toward Turkey’s coasts is foolishness.”
Last week, Greece’s parliament ratified a maritime accord with Egypt, just hours after Turkey announced it was extending the work of a seismic survey vessel in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Turks will this week hold live-firing exercises off the north-east coast of Cyprus.
That brings more friction with France (again), most of Europe (again) and adds just another layer to another historical enemy, Byzantium … I’m sorry, Greece.
That leaves the north? Well, that is the Black Sea. Quiet so far, but … we’ll see.
What, exactly, is Turkey up to?
Cue the retired Admiral;
After a career at sea and eight years of retirement, Cem Gurdeniz, a 62-year-old Turkish admiral, has suddenly found himself in the limelight here, touting an expansive, nationalist vision of Turkish power projected far into the contested waters off his country’s shores.
Gurdeniz developed the maritime doctrine, called Blue Homeland, more than a decade ago because he was disturbed by what he said was the government’s reluctance to secure Turkey’s rights. His vision has gained popularity at a volatile moment as Turkey and Greece square off in the eastern Mediterranean, leading to fears of a war within NATO.
Blue Homeland’s aims are spelled out on a map showing Turkey’s land mass surrounded by a wide buffer of nearly 180,000 squares miles of sea stretching beyond the Greek islands off Turkey’s west coast. The concept — once narrowly associated with left-wing nationalists — is now regularly cited by Turkish officials, including President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, when talking about maritime disputes. Blue Homeland has energized Turks who feel the country has been unjustly denied its rightful claims to the sea, given its long coastline, and has confirmed for adversaries fears of resurgent Turkish expansionism.
“We cannot neglect the seas again. We cannot be pushed away from the geopolitics of the Mediterranean, the civilization of the Mediterranean,” Gurdeniz said in an interview in an Istanbul cafe overlooking the Bosporus and, in the distance, the Black Sea.
There is something in the air – and water – for that matter. Turkey is creating friction with ancient rivals, allies, and friends all around her. Will the heat and sparks find fuel ready to fire?
