Off most people’s hot list, what is happening in southeast Africa, specifically Mozambique, matters.
This nation of over 30 million souls in an area roughly the size of CA, OR, WA, NV, and AZ combined, is one of the most poor and underdeveloped in the world. Only 19% of the population is Muslim, but as they are on the bleeding edge of Islam, so there are problems – and they are getting worse.
Sporadic clashes broke out in Palma on Tuesday as thousands of residents hid around the besieged northern Mozambique town, scrambling to escape the area overrun by jihadist militants, aid agencies said.
Insurgents affiliated with the Islamic State group launched a raid to overrun the coastal town last Wednesday, ransacking buildings and beheading civilians.
Dozens have been killed in what witnesses describe as a coordinated attack, just 10 kilometres (six miles) from a multi-billion dollar gas project on the Afungi peninsula led by France’s Total.
“There are still sporadic clashes reported from Palma this morning,” the UN humanitarian affairs agency OCHA said Tuesday, adding that “thousands” fled to the bush and sought refuge near the gas exploration site.
The raid on Palma was a major escalation in the insurgency by jihadists who have wreaked havoc across northern Mozambique since 2017, raiding villages and towns with the aim of establishing an Islamic caliphate.
Hundreds of shaken survivors from Palma have streamed into the neighbouring town of Mueda and provincial capital Pemba, where they arrived via boat, foot and plane.
Over 3,360 displaced people had safely reached surrounding districts, said the International Organization for Migration.
But aid agencies believe thousands more are still wandering around the area, desperately seeking refuge.
Some have been trudging through forest for days, walking west towards the Tanzanian border, with little access to food and water.
This poor nation chose the wrong side in the Cold War that included a 15 year civil war that followed independence from Portugal in the mid-70s. She’s tried to get in step, but can’t quite make it happen for a nation that on paper seems to have such promise.
The instability has led to huge numbers of people leaving their homes in areas where conflict has erupted.
Nearly 670,000 people were internally displaced in Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Nampula provinces by the end of 2020, according to the UN Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
It appears that Mozambique is having trouble helping itself. Though French interests are under threat, she is fully vested in the Sahel with what deployable forces and money is available.
Her former colonial power, Portugal can’t help more than a few dozen advisers. Zimbabwe and South Africa have enough internal issues to deal with. Mozambique was never in the US sphere of influence, but it appears we are thinking about trying to help;
“US special operations forces… will support Mozambique’s efforts to prevent the spread of terrorism and violent extremism,” the US embassy in Mozambique said on 15 March.
“Clearly, the US is trying to extend its influence,” says Jasmine Opperman, an analyst with the monitoring group Acled.
But she adds that it is a complex local conflict, and that “the US is framing the insurgency in a very over-simplified manner by referring to [the militants] as an extension of the Islamic State”.
On March 10, the US government designated al-Shabab in Mozambique as a “foreign terrorist organisation”, describing it as an IS-affiliate.
Russia will probably let this former Soviet client pass as well.
So, who has an interest here? Who will help her that has forces not otherwise committed elsewhere?
The representative in Mozambique of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), Sun Gang Pep, told the ‘Mozambique-China’ workshop that China is interested in increasing investments in the areas of natural resources, namely oil and gas.
“The Chinese investments may amount to more than US$100 million,” he said at the meeting promoted by Standard Bank in Maputo
The head of ICBC also recalled that trade between Mozambique and China increased significantly in 2018, reaching approximately US$168 million, an increase of 2.24% compared to the same period of 2017.
“Chinese investment in Mozambique is increasing with each passing year. Trade between the two countries is at a satisfactory pace and in the coming years will be further enhanced by the increase in investment in several areas,” he said.
“According to the data we have, about 70 percent of foreign direct investment in Mozambique goes to natural resources, mainly for oil and gas, and we, as a commercial and industrial bank, are going to finance projects in these areas as well,” he noted.
Sun Gang Pep also said that, “Through its strategic partnership with Standard Bank, ICBC will explore opportunities to expand cooperation to new business areas and to assist the Chinese business community in Mozambique.”
Will anything come of this if the security situation starts to impact Chinese interests? I don’t know. What I do know is at some point the People’s Republic of China is going to start testing out its new toys and what she sees as her place in the world somewhere else outside of WESTPAC.
If I were working for the PRC and had higher D&G to find a place to have a coming out party that, if set up properly, would be low risk … well … I can write this OPLAN for Mozambique that will have the desired secondary effect of showing the impotence of other “world powers.”
Let me pick my team and we’ll be ready for preliminary COA review with J3 and J5 by 1100Z next Wednesday. We will be ready to brief J00, unless significant changes by J3 and J5, by the following Monday.
Anyone here know Mandarin and Portuguese?
