What is the conventional wisdom when it comes to the PLAN’s amphibious capabilities, especially when it comes to China? Kyle Mizokami has it about right;
China has also embarked upon a dramatic amphibious ship construction effort, building eight Type 071 landing platform dock ships. Each Type 071 is capable of landing up to a battalion’s worth of Chinese marines on hostile territory, by ship or Type 726 hovercraft. China has also built two Type 075 amphibious assault ships similar to the U.S.’s Wasp-class ships, and plans to build six more. A total of 32 large amphibious ships, 16 medium ships, and 29 tank landing ships could conceivably transport all eight brigades of the PLAN Marine Corps in the first wave of an invasion.
… a dramatic amphibious ship construction effort, building eight Type 071 landing platform dock ships. Each Type 071 is capable of landing up to a battalion’s worth of Chinese marines on hostile territory, by ship or Type 726 hovercraft. China has also built two Type 075 amphibious assault ships similar to the U.S.’s Wasp-class ships, and plans to build six more. A total of 32 large amphibious ships, 16 medium ships, and 29 tank landing ships could conceivably transport all eight brigades of the PLAN Marine Corps in the first wave of an invasion.
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Could China be ready for this scenario by 2027? Probably not. It would most likely take until 2035 to build enough sealift to transport the invasion force. China would also be smart to build more sealift than it needs, as each ship will have to make multiple trips to and from the island, exposed during each run to Taiwanese (and likely American) ships, planes, and submarines.
Are we really doing that math right? Conor Kennedy has a little something that should give you pause;
… the PLA may have other plans for transporting troops and equipment across the Strait: the growing capabilities of its merchant roll on-roll off (RO-RO) ships (CMSI, December 6, 2019). These are vessels equipped with built-in ramps that enable wheeled and tracked cargo to load and offload under their own power. Such ships have the potential to deliver a significant volume of force, providing access to port terminals or other lighterage is available. They do not, however, provide solutions for launching waves of amphibious assault forces, for which dedicated landing ships are still lacking. Among the numerous critical components necessary for a successful cross-Strait landing, a failure to secure landing areas for follow-on forces in the initial assault would bring the entire endeavor to a screeching halt, likely inflicting severe costs on the part of the aggressor and resulting in a withdrawal.
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On July 10, the Bang Chui Dao, which usually runs ferry routes across the Yellow Sea and Bohai Gulf, arrived in Zhanjiang (湛江) to join the PLANMC exercise. It took on 1st Brigade troops, trucks, and Type-05 amphibious armored vehicles at the Southern Theater Navy’s 6th Landing Ship Flotilla loading dock (CCTV, August 3, 2020). According to automatic identification system (AIS) transmission data of the vessel’s movements, the ship departed Zhanjiang just before 10:00 AM local time and arrived off Tangxia (塘霞), an amphibious training area in Dianbai County (电白区), at almost 4:00 PM. AIS data indicates that it likely began launching vehicles 4 to 5 kilometers (2.5 to 3.1 miles) offshore without dropping anchor.
… The key technical development demonstrated in its July 2020 exercise with the PLANMC is the converted stern ramp installed on the Bang Chui Dao. The ship’s previous straight stern ramp (shown above) was a hydraulic-powered ramp type often seen on RO-ROs. At some point in the past few years, this vessel’s stern ramp was converted to enable amphibious launch. Video of this capability appeared during a 2019 state media profile of an officer at the former Nanjing Military Region Military Representative Office for Navigational Matters, showing the vessel’s ability to recover a ZTD-05 amphibious assault vehicle,…
… Thus far, the new ramp system has only been seen on the Bang Chui Dao, but it could be installed across China’s fleet of RO-RO ships. In 2019, authors from the PLA Military Transportation University stated that there were 63 RO-RO ships suitable for use in transporting military units, totaling 140,000 deadweight tons.
As others have pointed out – especially with weapons that have non-discriminatory “attack the first/largest radar contact” seeker heads – in any crossing of the Taiwan Strait there would most likely be more targets than weapons to serve them.
If you think you only have X HVU, but really have X+Y HVU, everyone’s wargame gets a bit more interesting.
Thus far, the new ramp system has only been seen on the Bang Chui Dao, but it could be installed across China’s fleet of RO-RO ships. In 2019, authors from the PLA Military Transportation University stated that there were 63 RO-RO ships suitable for use in transporting military units, totaling 140,000 deadweight tons.[6] While larger, more advanced RO-RO ships have been delivered, numerous existing ships still use straight stern ramps like the Bang Chui Dao.[7] Many of these might be good candidates for ramp conversion.
A surge in PLA landing ship construction would be expected before serious preparations for a cross-Strait invasion. This would be exposed to ship spotters and overhead imagery over the course of many months and has not yet been observed. Nevertheless, the testing of new ramp systems as seen on the Bang Chui Dao could offer the PLA a potentially fast and cheap method of surging amphibious lift capabilities without raising concerns. This middle ground scenario raises questions about how quickly such conversions could be detected. Converted RO-RO ships could also be loaded with amphibious combat units well ahead of a planned invasion, supporting personnel with shipboard amenities normally used for civilian purposes. This could help ease pressure on mobilization, embarkation, and movement timelines and could be done at optimal periods, such as nights with low visibility or days with ample cloud cover.
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Although ramps are nowhere nearly as flashy as footage of the PLAN’s brand-new amphibious assault ships, military observers would do well to watch how many of China’s older and smaller RO-RO ships receive this new ramp system in the coming years.
