The new Director of National Intelligence, Adm Dennis Blair (Ret.), helps confirm a growing suspicion of mine:
The economic crisis has trumped bullets and bombs in the intelligence agencies’ latest assessment of threats to the United States.
It is a reflection of the depth of the unfolding recession, but also of the progress made in the war against terrorists and the Obama administration’s more expansive definition of national security.
Sounding more like an economist than the warfighting Navy commander he once was, National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair told a Senate panel Thursday that if the crisis lasts more than two years, it could cause some nations’ governments to collapse.
And a number of allies the United States depends on might no longer be able to afford to meet their own defense and humanitarian obligations, he said.
Blair said already the financial meltdown, which started in the United States and quickly infected other countries, has eroded confidence in American economic leadership and belief in free markets.
“Time is probably our greatest threat. The longer it takes for the recovery to begin, the greater the likelihood of serious damage to U.S. strategic interests,” he told the Senate Intelligence Committee, as Congress prepares to vote Friday on a $789 billion stimulus package.
Blair’s 49-page statement opened with a detailed description of the economic crisis. It was a marked departure from threat briefings of years past, which focused first on traditional threats and battlefields like Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan.
It seems pretty clear to those of us that spend time parsing the language of senior officials that big changes are in the cards. Predictions anyone?
[Update] ADM Blair’s statement has been posted on the Senate web site. Here’s some of the rationale:
Time is probably our greatest threat. The longer it takes for the recovery to begin, the greater the likelihood of serious damage to US strategic interests. Roughly a quarter of the countries in the world have already experienced low-level instability such as government changes because of the current slowdown. Europe and the former Soviet Union have experienced the bulk of the anti-state demonstrations. Although two-thirds of countries in the world have sufficient financial or other means to limit the impact for the moment, much of Latin America, former Soviet Union states and sub-Saharan Africa lack sufficient cash reserves, access to international aid or credit, or other coping mechanism. Statistical modeling shows that economic crises increase the risk of regime-threatening instability if they persist over a one to two year period. Besides increased economic nationalism, the most likely political fallout for US interests will involve allies and friends not being able to fully meet their defense and humanitarian obligations. Potential refugee flows from the Caribbean could also impact Homeland security.
Based on ADM Blair’s conclusion, here’s how he ranks other security priorities:
2. Neutralizing extremist groups using terrorism
3. Controlling the proliferation of WMD
4. Developing codes of conduct for cyberspace and space
5. Mitigating and slowing global climate change
